The Bank for International Settlements issued its BIS locational banking statistics (LBS)  on global liquidity indicators.  The key findings of this report are as follows:

• Banks' cross-border claims fell by $1.4 trillion in Q4 2022, slowing the year-on-year (yoy) growth rate to 6%. Both lower bank credit (ie loans and holdings of debt securities) and a drop in the market value of banks' derivatives and other residual instruments contributed to the decline.
• Global cross-border bank credit (ie loans and holdings of debt securities) fell by $749 billion, or $400 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Euro-denominated credit declined by $231 billion after expanding earlier in the year.
• Cross-border bank credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) fell by $179 billion in Q4 2022 due to weaker dollar lending. Credit to the Asia-Pacific region contracted the most.
• The BIS global liquidity indicators (GLIs) show a large contraction in dollar credit to non-banks in EMDEs in Q4 2022. Dollar credit to EMDEs shrank by 4%, a rate last seen during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09.

Given the recent failures around the world of banks, largely as a result of aggressive action to contain inflation, watching this data may give insight into future policy on liquidity and capital in the future.

The BIS Innovation Hub Singapore Centre and partners announced the successful connection of the test versions of three established IPS using the Nexus model and outlined the next phase of the project to work on the real-world potential of a multilateral network that could be scaled up across more countries.  The press release noted the following:

• To enhance cross-border payments, the BIS Innovation Hub Singapore Centre developed the Nexus concept of a first-of-its-kind multilateral network connecting multiple domestic instant payment systems (IPS).
• Nexus prototype successfully connected the test IPS of the Eurosystem, Malaysia and Singapore, allowing payments to be sent across the three using only mobile phone numbers.
• In the next phase, BIS and the central banks of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand will jointly work towards connecting their domestic IPS through Nexus.

The Nexus report provides details on the early experiments and technical specifications for the multilateral interlinking of payment systems. The success of the experiment paves the way for the BIS Innovation Hub Singapore Centre to explore the practical applications of a distributed multilateral network.

This efforts supports the G20 priorities of improving the cost, speed, access and transparency of cross-border payments by connecting domestic IPS across multiple countries through a standardised and multilateral approach.  The Innovation Hub's Singapore Centre is now collaborating with these central banks to facilitate their design processes, as they aim to connect their domestic payment systems.

This development is significant for credit unions in that it demonstrates efforts to transform the payments space and can have a profound effect on credit unions’ participation and engagement in the payments space.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) released a report, Operational and technical considerations for extending and aligning payment system operating hours for cross-border payments: An analytical framework, to aid central banks and operators who plan to extend real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system operating hours with a systemic approach to render these services effectively. The report works in conjunction with the BIS May 2022 report, Extending and aligning payment system operating hours for cross-border payments. According to the report, “An extension and alignment of payment system operating hours across jurisdictions could help to speed up cross-border payments, especially between jurisdictions with significant time zone differences. It could also improve liquidity management, reduce settlement risk and enhance the performance of cross-border payment arrangements.”

While the 2022 report focused on three options for extending RTGS system operating hours to enhance for cross-border payments, including incremental increases in operating hours on current operating days, inclusion of current non-operating days, and extension to 24/7 operating hours, the 2023 report gives attention to current operating days as a short term strategy. Medium and long-term strategies are still under consideration.  

More information on BIS’ report on Operational and technical considerations for extending and aligning payment system operating hours for cross-border payments: An analytical framework, is available here.

The Bank for International Settlements issued its Bulletin entitled Addressing the risks in crypto: laying out the options to address the recent failures involving several major crypto firms.  This issues has become increasingly pressing as these emerging markets are going through booms and busts.  While they have not yet threatened financial stability the scale and prominence of these recent failures highlight the need to address the risks before crypto markets can evolve into systemic contagions.

The reports key takeaways are as follows: 

• The recent high-profile failures of FTX and other crypto firms have re-ignited the debate on the appropriate policy response to address the risks in crypto, including through regulation.
• The "shadow financial" functions enabled by crypto markets share many of the vulnerabilities of traditional finance. These risks are exacerbated by specific features of crypto.
• Authorities may consider different – not mutually exclusive – lines of action to tackle the risks in crypto. These include containment or regulation of the crypto sector or an outright ban.
• Central banks and public authorities could also work to make TradFi more attractive. A key option is to encourage sound innovation with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

A copy of the report can be viewed here.

Financial Stability Institute (FSI) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued its Financial Stability Insights report on the supervisory practices for assessing the sustainability of banks’ business models

The report finds that banks rarely become weak overnight, and flaws in business models and strategies are often the root causes of banks' vulnerabilities and failures. While sudden shocks may be the immediate cause of banks' demise, the root causes are generally more structural. If not identified in time and allowed to fester, these vulnerabilities will make a bank's activities increasingly unsustainable, to the point where it becomes non-viable.

The report notes that business model analysis (BMA) is a key component of supervisory frameworks that allows supervisors to identify banks' vulnerabilities at an early stage and helps to ensure their safety and soundness. Where the analysis identifies existing or potential vulnerabilities, the assessment may provide grounds for early supervisory interventions. Therefore, BMA has the potential to enhance bank supervision and make it more effective, proactive and forward-looking.

The paper presents a range of supervisory practices regarding BMAs. In particular, it aims to identify practices that might be relevant to authorities seeking to explicitly introduce BMA in their supervisory review process (SRP). In order to do so, the paper emphasizes practical aspects of BMA, including processes and procedures for developing and conducting a BMA as well as for integrating its outcomes into the overall SRP.

A copy of the report can be viewed here.

A new report from the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS), a central bank forum for examining risks to financial stability, hosted by the Bank for International Settlements, highlights that the rise in private sector debt during the Covid-19 crisis was associated with borrowing by weaker businesses and rapid house price growth. However, it finds that the importance of such debt vulnerabilities differs substantially across countries, depending on factors such as the strength of the economic recovery and the health of the financial system.  The report suggests ways that policymakers can tackle debt vulnerabilities in the uncertain post-pandemic macroeconomic environment.

During the Covid-19 crisis, unprecedented policy support prevented debt risks from materializing. But misperceptions about the prospects for similar support in future could lead lenders to underprice risk. Where risks are mounting, borrower-focused macroprudential tools such as limits on debt service-to-income ratios, can help to stem the build-up. Where debt vulnerabilities are already high, or might be exposed by the uncertain macroeconomic environment, policymakers should ensure that financial institutions' capital buffers remain sufficient to absorb potential losses.

Key findings from the report are as follows:

• Private sector borrowing played a key role in supporting economic activity during the pandemic but higher debt could now pose a risk to financial stability and economic growth
• Emerging vulnerabilities include higher debt among weaker businesses, booming housing markets, and potential misperceptions about the prospects for exceptional policy support that might cause lenders to underprice risks in the future
• A surge in private sector borrowing helped to moderate the severity of the Covid-19 economic downturn. Yet, it also shone a spotlight on the risks that high debt can pose to financial stability and macroeconomic performance, according to a new report.

A copy of the report can be viewed here.

On March 2, 2022, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision issued a newsletter on COVID-19 related credit risk issues they believe will be helpful to support the day-to-day activities of banks and supervisors. The newsletter addresses: the Committee’s intention to continue to assess credit risk and asset quality by maintaining their monitoring of bank practices, in addition to administering necessary provisions; observations from supervisors regarding policies and practices across banks' credit risk governance and credit risk models; and challenges to assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Committee highlighted that the key applicable elements of risk include, risks related to supervisory concerns that residual support measures may mask creditworthiness and therefore borrowers’ “future debt servicing capacity"; supervisory fears over whether bank provisions are capturing risk; uncertainty that supervisors feel around the adequacy of governance or boards to assess unlikeliness to pay (UTP), in addition to “incorporating public support measures in data reporting”; and supervisory observations that banks are applying “sizeable judgment-based adjustments to their internal ratings-based (IRB) approach and provisioning models, reflecting the pandemic environment,” as well as their belief that bank controls and governance that support model adjustments need improvement.

The Committee will continue to focus on the following credit risk topics in 2022:

• “particular asset classes (eg residential real estate, commercial real estate and leveraged lending) that may be generating supervisory concerns in specific regions;
• indicators and triggers for UTP assessments, particularly for loans subject to moratoriums;
• controls and governance around credit risk models and model adjustments in the pandemic environment; and
• the use and incorporation of data over the COVID-19 period, particularly whether and how it should inform future credit model development, testing and validation.”

More information on the Basel Committee’s newsletter is available here.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) launched the Asian Green Bond Fund to aid green project finance investments within the Asia and Pacific region. The fund will support environmental projects such as renewable energy production and energy efficiency within this region. The open-ended, USD-denominated fund was developed with the assistance of the BIS Asian Consultative Council and in collaboration the Asian Development Bank, development financing community, and other stakeholders. Generally, the fund will help channel central bank reserves to green projects in the Asia and Pacific region. Since 2019, BIS has launched two other green bond funds totaling $3.5 billion in green bond funds for central banks and “other official sector investors.”

More information on the Asian Green Bond Fund is available here.

On February 9, 2022, the Basel Committee’s oversight body, the Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS), met to not only reappoint Pablo Hernández de Cos as Chair for a second term, but to reaffirm its “commitment to implementing all aspects of the Basel III framework”. The GHOS reviewed progress of the Basel III implementation process and pushed for implementation in “a full, timely and consistent manner to provide a regulatory level playing field for internationally active banks”; which was followed by full agreement from all members. Under the purview of the Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme, the GHOS further obligated the Basel Committee to continue to monitor implementation of the framework. The GHOS is currently looking to fill its Chair vacancy as their previous Chairman, François Villeroy de Galhau, stepped down to accept his appointment as Chair of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements.

More information regarding current GHOS endeavors is available here.  

The implementation of retail fast payment systems (FPS) across the globe is continuing at a rapid pace, with significant implications for incumbent real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems, according to a report published today by the Bank for International Settlements' Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI).

Developments in retail fast payments and implications for RTGS systems takes stock of recent developments in retail FPS, discusses the implications for RTGS systems and examines the role of central banks in these systems.

Based on a survey of CPMI member jurisdictions, the report highlights the following findings and implications:

• global implementation of fast payments is continuing at a rapid pace;
• the use of a given FPS (ie adoption rate) is generally low in the early stages of its implementation, although some recent FPS have been more rapid in their take-up;
• FPS can have significant implications for the operations and services of RTGS systems in the same jurisdiction, such as the modification of access criteria and extension of operating hours;
• FPS are increasingly settling obligations between banks and, where relevant, non-bank FPS participants on a gross (ie payment-by-payment) basis in real time;
• most jurisdictions have either adopted or are moving towards ISO 20022 as the messaging format for their FPS; and
• while differences in approaches remain, central banks tend to play important roles in facilitating the operations of FPS.

The report also highlights that designing, implementing and operating an FPS is complex. Challenges include ensuring high system availability (eg during nights and weekends) and reliability requirements.

A copy of the release can be viewed here.

Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), outlined his view on the plausible scenarios for the future of money at the Goethe University's Institute for Law and Finance (ILF) conference on "Data, Digitalization, the New Finance and Central Bank Digital Currencies: The Future of Banking and Money.

Carstens offered  three plausible scenarios for the future of money.

• In the first, big tech stablecoins compete with national currencies and against each other too, fragmenting the monetary system.
• The second relates to the elusive promise of crypto and decentralised finance, or "DeFi", which claims to offer a financial system free from powerful intermediaries, but may actually deliver something very different.
• The third realises the vision of an open and global monetary and financial system that harnesses technology for the benefit of all.

Carstens urged development of the third vision noting the design of money has consequences that concern all of society: the integrity and stability of money and payments, market concentration, consumer rights and efficiency. Hence, he urged central bankers to work with other public authorities and private stakeholders to achieve this vision.  He urged innovation in a sound, sustainable way, harnessing the benefits of digital technology in a way that is consistent with our shared values. The goal of ensuring that the financial system builds on the existing governance of money, serves the public interest and works cooperatively with the private sector was of paramount importance.

A copy of the entire speech can be found here.

Correspondent banking trends continued in 2020, with the volume and value of transactions increasing despite the changing payments landscape during the pandemic, according to new data published today by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI).

Cross-border payment volume and value increased by 2% and 7%, respectively, in 2020. Correspondent banking relationships declined by 4% from the previous year, taking their total contraction to about 25% between 2011 and 2020.

Following a decline in early 2020, when the beginning of the pandemic induced a bout of market turmoil, the volume and value of correspondent banking rebounded, and the downward trend in relationships stabilised.

Some of the key factors contributing to the rapidly changing payments landscape, such as innovation, are discussed in detail in the Bank for International Settlements March 2020 Quarterly Review.

As the increase in volume and value of transactions shows, correspondent banking relationships continue to play a pivotal role in cross-border payments, despite their worldwide decline.

They offer an important payment channel for firms and households, and a critical loss of relationships could hurt financial inclusion, raise the cost of payments and push payments activity into less regulated areas.

The data was provided by SWIFT based on payment messages from more than 200 countries and jurisdictions.

A copy of the Release can be viewed here.

The implementation of retail Faster Payment Systems (FPS) across the globe is continuing at a rapid pace and may have significant implications for the financial sector pursuant to a report published by the Bank for International Settlements' Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI). The report, Developments in retail fast payments and implications for RTGS systems takes stock of recent developments and discusses the implications for financial institutions and examines the role of central banks in these systems.

The report highlights the following findings and implications:

• global implementation of fast payments is continuing at a rapid pace;
• the use of a given FPS (ie adoption rate) is generally low in the early stages of its implementation, although some recent FPS have been more rapid in their take-up;
• FPS can have significant implications for the operations and services of RTGS systems in the same jurisdiction, such as the modification of access criteria and extension of operating hours;
• FPS are increasingly settling obligations between banks and, where relevant, non-bank FPS participants on a gross (ie payment-by-payment) basis in real time;
• most jurisdictions have either adopted or are moving towards ISO 20022 as the messaging format for their FPS; and
• while differences in approaches remain, central banks tend to play important roles in facilitating the operations of FPS.

The report also highlights that designing, implementing and operating an FPS is complex with challenges including the need to ensure high system availability (eg during nights and weekends) and reliability requirements.

A copy of the release can be viewed here.

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) released a commentary entitled, “Covid-19 Accelerated the Digitalisation of Payments“, asserting that the current acceleration of the digitalization payments is a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic. In summary, the commentary contends that the CPMI’s latest Red Book Statistics demonstrates a consumer shift from cash to digital/contactless payment options at an “unprecedented” rate; and that the value of circulated cash has surged.

Key take aways from the commentary:

• "The Covid-19 pandemic has boosted the use of digital and contactless payments.
• Cash in circulation reached a decade high due to a surge in demand for high-value banknotes, suggesting that cash was increasingly held as a store of value rather than for making payments.
• The pandemic has added to the motivations of central banks to develop central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)."

More information on the CPMI’s commentary is available here.

A recent speech by Fernando Restoy, Chairman, Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements addressed the role of prudential policy as it relates to climate change.

Restoy noted that banks are exposed to climate change through two different sets of climate risk drivers:  1.  Through physical risks resulting from the increasing frequency of extreme weather events; and 2. Transactional risk resulting from disruption from the cumulative effects of changes in government policies and in technology and consumer and investor behavior which in turn can erode the value of banks’ credit exposures on the corresponding collateral.  

He notes that the physical and transition risks manifest themselves in the form of credit, market and liquidity risks. In addition, climate-related developments can increase operational risk by affecting business continuity and by giving rise to litigation and reputational losses.

Restoy concludes that the role of prudential regulators is to thoroughly analyze the financial impact of climate change on safety and soundness and to make adjustments to protect the stability of the financial system.  The key will be achieving the right balance between disclosure obligations, supervisory action, and the adjustment of capital requirements if appropriate.

A transcript of the entire speech can be viewed here.

The Bank of International Settlements recently released a report entitled "Covid-19 Policy Measures to Support Bank Lending to review policies designed to support lending.   The report noted that in the wake of the Covid-19 fallout, policymakers enacted a wide range of measures to support the flow of credit. Some measures strengthened banks' lending capacity by preserving their capital and encouraging flexibility in loss accounting. Others, such as state-backed loan guarantees or funding for lending programmes, incentivized banks to use their available capacity.  It found that both types of measures contributed to lending growth.  In particular, the report contained the following key takeaways:

• Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, policy measures have supported lending by enhancing banks' balance sheet capacity and creating incentives for banks to use this capacity.
• Strong balance sheets allowed banks to accommodate credit line drawdowns at the start of the pandemic, while subsequent policy measures supported further lending.
• Small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those in sectors hard hit by the pandemic, expanded their borrowing by more in countries with more generous guarantee programmes.

On June 29, 2021, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released its  Annual Economic Report at the Annual General Meeting. The report includes several topics including:

• Pandexit: how “recovery will be uneven and the long-term consequences material”.
• Challenges as a result of COVID-19 pandemic including but not limited to: upside and downside risks; diverging economic conditions and tensions between fiscal and monetary policy; lack of policy support in emerging market economies (EMEs).
• The distributional footprint of monetary policy: how to combat economic inequity, which BIS argues are “outside the reach of monetary policy, and is best addressed by fiscal and structural policies.”
• Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs): an opportunity for the monetary system.

More information on the BIS’ Annual Economic Report is available here.

On June 17, 2021, Ignazio Visco, the Governor of the Bank of Italy gave a keynote address to the 2021 IIF G20 Conference- The G20 Agenda Under the Italian Presidency. In his address, Mr. Visco covered topics regarding COVID-19 and the global economy, financial regulation, and financial inclusion and international digital cooperation.

Visco highlighted that the concerns that existed before the pandemic are more pronounced today, such as the increased use of digitalization. He noted that in coordination with major international organizations, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors updated their Action Plan to continue to continue the effectiveness of economic policy responses and conceded the“…need to closely monitor the increasingly divergent recovery paths – which may well entail an asynchronous unwinding of monetary and fiscal support measures – and take international policy spillovers into account.”

The Governor also emphasized the need to address vulnerabilities in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, especially in the areas of Money Market Funds. Visco also discussed financial regulation concerns surrounding mitigation of climate-related financial risks. “The G20 Finance Track aims to encourage a better alignment of both public and private financial commitments with the objectives of the 2015 Paris Agreement.”

Most notably, Visco addressed how digitalization has a direct impact on financial inclusion. He warned that while digitalization may build access, it could also “lead to new forms of exclusion” including indebtedness. “The outcome will depend, crucially, on the development and accessibility of digital infrastructures, the degree of financial and digital literacy, and the adequacy of governance, especially in the fields of regulation and supervision.” Some of the solutions Visco prescribed include: fostering more innovative regulatory and supervisory approaches; development of cross-border payments to make them cheaper, faster, more transparent and inclusive; and coordination with the Financial Stability Boards’ recommendations to address challenges related to global stablecoins for regulation, supervision, and payment-system oversight.

Governor Ignazio Visco’s full speech is available here.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published their Cyber resilience practices – Executive Summary, with the aim of strengthening cyber resilience within financial firms. Citing the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) definition, cyber resilience consists of "the ability of an organisation to continue to carry out its mission by anticipating and adapting to cyber threats and other relevant changes in the environment and by withstanding, containing and rapidly recovering from cyber incidents."  

The Executive Summary covers the following topics:

• Regulation and supervision
• Cyber incident response and recovery
• Third party discrepancies
• Information-sharing arrangements
• Cyber resilience metrics

Additional information on the Executive Summary is available here.

In an effort to meet goals for the 2015 Paris Agreement, The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) released a summary of their May 2020, Guide for Supervisors – Integrating climate-related and environmental risks into prudential supervision. The Climate and environmental risks - guide for supervisors - Executive Summary, summarizes the five key recommendations to “provide authorities with a roadmap to integrate climate-related and environmental risks in supervisory frameworks”.

The recommendations include:

_{Image via: Bank for International Settlements website: https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsisummaries/climate_env_risks.htm}

A detailed summary of each recommendation is available here.

On January 22, 2021, the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub (BISIH) announced a work programme focusing on six key areas to address “international collaboration among central banks on innovative financial technology”. These areas include: suptech and regtech; next-generation financial market infrastructures; central bank digital currencies; open finance; green finance; and cyber security.

In addition to launching the Innovation Network to support their priorities, BISIH plans to launch a series of projects including:

• “a proof of concept solution for a regulatory reporting platform employing data analytics and data visualisation to provide supervisors with deeper and more timely insights to address risks;
• a proof of concept platform using multiple wholesale CBDCs to explore the feasibility of faster and cheaper cross-border payments;
• a technological research project and associated prototype(s) for tiered retail CBDC distribution architectures; and
• a distributed ledger technology prototype for distribution of tokenised green bonds to retail investors.”

More information regarding the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub work programme and the Innovation Network can be found here.

• The financial sector has been hit by hackers relatively more often than other sectors during the Covid-19 pandemic.
• While this has not yet led to significant disruptions or a systemic impact, there are substantial risks from cyber attacks for financial institutions, their staff and their customers going forward.
• Financial authorities are working to mitigate cyber risks, including through international cooperation.

A group of seven central banks together with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) today published a report identifying the foundational principles necessary for any publicly available Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) to help central banks meet their public policy objectives. The report outlines foundational principles and core features of a CBDC.

The report, Central bank digital currencies: foundational principles and core features, was compiled by the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, Sveriges Riksbank, the Swiss National Bank and the BIS, and highlights three key principles for a CBDC:

• Coexistence with cash and other types of money in a flexible and innovative payment system.
• Any introduction should support wider policy objectives and do no harm to monetary and financial stability.
• Features should promote innovation and efficiency.

The group of central banks will continue to work together on CBDCs, without prejudging any decision on whether or not to introduce CBDCs in their jurisdictions.

A copy of the report can be viewed here.

The Financial Stability Institute(FSI) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued its report on the prudential response to debt under COVID-19:  the supervisory challenges.  The highlights of the report are as follows: